BeforeTheWeekend

Episode 16 · Before the Weekend · 1h 20m

A Developer's Collapse, the Rate Flip and Four Different Brisbanes

This week on [Before the Weekend](https://beforetheweekend.com/), [Kasey McDonald](https://www.linkedin.com/in/kasey-mcdonald-tutaki-857a3337/) and [Peter Schravemade](https://www.linkedin.com/in/schravemade/) work through a numbers week in which almost none of the numbers agreed with each other. First, Universal Property Group. Administrators were appointed Tuesday to a business carrying roughly $3.2 billion in liabilities, $2.85 billion of it borrowing, spread across hundreds of numbered subsidiaries running as high as UPG 460. They want $20 million just to keep it trading for five weeks. The number that matters to anyone holding a contract is the $27 million of buyer money sitting outside protected accounts, alongside $209 million of completed stock nobody has been able to shift, in the middle of a supply crisis. Then Perth, where REIWA disqualified an agent from its own awards because the figures he submitted did not stack up. That would have been the story on its own. The second matter is heavier: the same agent is alleged to have bought his own vendor's home through a company registered the same day the offer was made, at the agency's own address, with the disclosure form arriving almost six weeks after the contract was signed. There was a ghost open home and there were retrospective valuations. Peter is careful throughout that all of it is alleged. Then the flip. Three of the big four now forecast a rate hike where the consensus was a cut in 2027, with Westpac the last one holding. Peter puts the ACTU's two-year lease mandate against the arithmetic a property manager actually faces, $5 a week incremental against an $80 step-up, and argues the mandate would produce exactly the behaviour it was written to prevent. Then the story nobody else ran. Four providers published vacancy rates for the same cities in the same quarter and none of them match. Sydney: Domain 1.1 per cent, SQM 1.7, PropTrack 1.7, Cotality 1.9. Brisbane: Domain 0.6 against Cotality 1.2. Darwin 0.1 against 0.9, a ninefold gap. Cotality calls Sydney and Brisbane the loosest capitals while Domain and SQM have Brisbane among the tightest. As Peter puts it: "Brisbane, no one seems to know where the hell the vacancy rate is." Also this week: national house rents at $730 a week and 69 per cent of weekly pay in Sydney, a Highland Property rent roll doubled to 5,000 by running property management as its own business unit with its own P&L, New Zealand naming and shaming its worst property managers, Ingenia's $992.5 million move on Peet, and a study finding 81 per cent of Australian homes sit below the World Health Organization's 18 degree safe minimum across winter.