Housing Headwinds, Industry Change and the Future of Real Estate

Before the Weekend, Episode 3

Part 1: Introduction and Tim Lawless Interview

Peter Schravemade: G'day folks, welcome to Before the Weekend. It's Friday, 29 May, and this is Episode 3. We've pumped out quite a lot of content over the last few weeks, so if you're just joining us, be sure to head to your favourite streaming service and catch up on the previous episodes. It's been a big couple of weeks, and I'm joined by my good friend and faithful wingwoman, Kasey McDonald. Kasey, how has your week been?

Kasey McDonald: Yeah, it's been fantastic, Pete. And yours?

Peter Schravemade: It's been a big couple of weeks, as you know. I've been travelling and I've struggled to recover from it. I used to be much better at this, but age is definitely catching up with me. I pretty much conked out on Wednesday and had a sleep in the middle of the day, which is one of the luxuries of working from home, I suppose. Aside from that, it's been a really good couple of weeks. What about you? I saw a pretty big announcement in the news yesterday.

Kasey McDonald: Yes, thank you. I'm really excited to be joining the Realflow Finance team and heading up their property management cash flow solution. As you know, property management is something I'm incredibly passionate about. I deeply care about property managers and investors, so I'm really excited to be back supporting an area of the industry that means a lot to me.

Peter Schravemade: Well, congratulations on the new role and congratulations to Realflow. They've secured a great team member there. I look forward to seeing where that journey takes you. Now, it has been a massive couple of weeks. We've had the National Awards for Excellence, we've had AREC 2026, and there has certainly been plenty happening. Kasey, you were on the floor at AREC. What did you think?

Kasey McDonald: There were certainly plenty of attendees, and as we all know, AREC puts on some fantastic networking opportunities and social events. Day one was definitely busier than day two, but there were lots of positive conversations coming out of the sessions. Josh Altman opened the event and I thought he was excellent. Hearing about his journey into real estate from a completely different industry was fascinating. Overall, there were probably mixed views on some aspects of the event, but what I saw was positivity, new faces, and a lot of people attending for the first time. That's always a good thing for the industry.

Peter Schravemade: For those following along, I recently interviewed Leanne Pilkington and she estimated attendance at around 5,000 people. I'm still not entirely convinced that's the number. Not because I think Leanne is wrong, but because we've both stood in that exhibition hall when there are genuinely 5,000 people there, and it feels absolutely packed. Looking around the hallways and surrounding venues, my gut feel was somewhere around 2,000 to 2,500 attendees. AREC is reporting closer to 4,800. I honestly don't know anymore. One thing we did notice was the large number of New Zealand attendees. I believe there were around 1,000 Kiwis attending, many with complimentary tickets. That certainly added a different flavour to the event. Leanne and I both commented that we hardly knew anyone walking through the exhibition hall, which was unusual. It felt like a completely different crowd. A lot of first-timers, and a lot of New Zealand visitors who appeared to be having an absolute blast.

Kasey McDonald: I agree. There weren't many familiar faces, and the supplier area felt more spread out than previous years. A lot of people seemed to be doing business outside the venue, under umbrellas at local pubs and bars, rather than sitting through sessions. That was certainly a common theme I heard on day two.

Peter Schravemade: That's exactly what I was hearing as well. While we were there, we managed to catch up with quite a few people, and those interviews will be released over the coming weeks. One of the standout interviews was with Tim Lawless from Cotality. For those unfamiliar with Tim, he's one of Australia's leading housing analysts. I actually only met him properly a week ago on a flight. He chose the window seat, I chose the aisle seat, and apparently neither of us were willing to compromise. After surviving that flight together, we caught up again at AREC and sat down for a conversation. Let's jump straight into that interview now.

Interview: Tim Lawless, Cotality

Kasey McDonald: We're here at AREC and I have my amazing co-host Peter Schravemade with me. We've tracked down one of the most recognisable names in Australian property data and research, Tim Lawless. Tim, thanks for joining us on Before the Weekend.

Tim Lawless: Thanks, Kasey. It's a pleasure to be here. Coincidentally, Peter and I were sitting next to each other on a flight a few days ago, so it's a small world.

Peter Schravemade: Tim has since lodged a formal complaint with Qantas.

Kasey McDonald: I did ask Peter whether he managed to put his foot in his mouth during that flight.

Peter Schravemade: Tim was pressing the assistance button repeatedly. I took that as a sign.

Tim Lawless: You were expecting business class treatment.

Kasey McDonald: Tim, most people in real estate know who you are, but for those who don't, tell us what you do.

Tim Lawless: At the end of the day, I'm an analyst. I look at housing market data and try to explain what it means for our clients. Those clients range from banks and financial institutions through to real estate agents, valuers, brokers, governments and risk professionals. Housing influences almost every part of the economy, whether that's lending, consumption, investment, risk or confidence. I'm fortunate enough to have access to an enormous amount of data through Cotality, and my role is helping people understand what that data is telling us.

Peter Schravemade: I heard your presentation yesterday and it wasn't exactly optimistic. You mentioned the possibility of the biggest housing downturn in 40 years. Can you unpack that?

Tim Lawless: Firstly, those weren't my numbers. Morgan Stanley recently released research suggesting we could be heading into the biggest housing downturn in 40 years. The context is important. Over the last 40 years we've experienced around eight housing downturns nationally. The largest decline was approximately 9%. So while saying "the biggest downturn in 40 years" sounds dramatic, the benchmark itself isn't particularly large. That said, we've just come through a very strong growth cycle. National housing values have risen around 45% over the past five years. Some markets have grown closer to 90%. Others, like Melbourne, have seen much lower growth. We're entering a market that has become increasingly complex. Affordability and serviceability are limiting growth. Inflation has re-emerged. The Reserve Bank has become more hawkish. We've seen rising interest rates, geopolitical instability, higher oil prices, and now tax reform. All of these factors place downward pressure on housing demand.

Peter Schravemade: Would you describe it as a perfect storm?

Tim Lawless: I can't remember another period where we've had this many headwinds arriving at the same time. Consumer confidence has fallen dramatically. When confidence falls, people stop making major financial decisions. Housing is one of the biggest financial decisions most people ever make.

Peter Schravemade: Kasey, what were your biggest takeaways from that conversation with Tim?

Kasey McDonald: There were quite a few. The first thing that stood out to me was what you described as a perfect storm. There are so many factors converging at once. One of the biggest issues for me was the rental market. We're seeing renters reach their affordability ceiling. More families are sharing homes because they simply can't afford to live separately. Young adults are staying at home longer because they can't save enough for a bond or deposit, and they can't afford to rent independently. We're seeing larger households, more shared accommodation, and a completely different housing dynamic emerging. It really highlighted that this isn't simply a housing affordability issue. It's fundamentally a housing supply issue. The other major point was Tim's outlook for the market. He is clearly forecasting a downturn and believes we're at a point where the market is likely to soften.

Peter Schravemade: Tim shared some pretty significant insights. He touched on affordability, consumer confidence, tax changes, global instability, rising living costs, investor retreat, rental shortages and construction costs. When you put all of those together, it really does start to resemble a perfect storm. Construction costs alone have risen by more than 35%. We've got labour shortages. We've got supply shortages. We've got interest rates moving. We've got confidence falling. It's difficult to find much positive news in that mix. One thing that stood out was Tim's comments about Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth. He acknowledged that affordability is becoming a major issue in all three markets, yet they're still experiencing strong demand and constrained supply. Interestingly, only a day later, the REIQ released data showing Brisbane prices continuing to rise despite all of the factors supposedly working against them. So we're already seeing some of those contradictions emerge.

Kasey McDonald: Absolutely. And I don't think we're talking enough about renters. Tim made the point that renters are effectively at their financial limit. People are sharing homes. Families are combining households. Adult children are staying home longer. The way Australians live is changing. We're adapting because people simply cannot afford housing in the same way they once could.

Peter Schravemade: I agree. We've been talking for a while about young people remaining in the family home longer, but now we're seeing broader structural changes. Share housing is returning. Multi-generational households are becoming more common. The reality is that in cities like Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, it's becoming increasingly difficult to service housing costs without multiple incomes. One of Tim's strongest observations was that renters simply can't continue absorbing higher costs forever. There is a ceiling. At some point the numbers stop working. That's why I think the construction feasibility discussion is so important. The fundamental issue remains supply. We're simply not building enough homes.

Kasey McDonald: And Tim was very clear that cost is the major barrier. Construction costs remain elevated. Labour remains constrained. Materials remain expensive. We then add international factors like what's happening in the Middle East, rising fuel prices and supply chain challenges. All of these things increase the cost of delivering new housing. There was also an interesting discussion circulating this week comparing Australia's recent tax reforms to similar reforms implemented in New Zealand. The argument being made was that New Zealand saw rents rise rather than fall during the period those changes were in place. It's certainly a discussion worth having.

Peter Schravemade: A lot of people are making that comparison. New Zealand is often viewed as a relevant case study because the markets share many similarities. The concern many people have is that we're focusing on investor settings without adequately addressing supply. Regardless of political persuasion, most economists and housing experts agree that supply remains the central issue. We're not building enough homes. That's the challenge. Whether the solution comes through planning reform, construction incentives, infrastructure investment or some combination of all three, supply has to be addressed. What concerns me is that we're spending a lot of time discussing demand-side policies while not seeing enough action on the supply side.

Kasey McDonald: Exactly. I've spoken to friends who have been trying to enter the market for years. They've looked at established homes. They've looked at house-and-land packages. The reality is that every year prices move further away from them. Even if they save diligently, they're often chasing a moving target. By the time they've saved their deposit, the required deposit has increased again. It's incredibly frustrating.

Peter Schravemade: And that brings us back to one of Tim's most important observations. What does all of this mean for real estate professionals? Because despite the challenges, Tim was actually quite optimistic about the role of professional agents during a downturn. His view was that skill matters more when markets become difficult. The easy sales disappear. Agents who rely on momentum struggle. The best agents rise to the top. They manage expectations. They price accurately. They negotiate effectively. They market properties professionally. In many ways, a tougher market separates professionals from opportunists.

Kasey McDonald: Exactly. And Tim also referenced some recently released research suggesting a significant slowdown through 2026 before markets begin to stabilise. The message wasn't panic. The message was preparation. Professionals who focus on relationships, service and fundamentals are likely to emerge stronger when the market eventually turns.

Peter Schravemade: Property is cyclical. It always has been. And while downturns can be uncomfortable, they also create opportunities for businesses that focus on the fundamentals. Relationships. Database growth. Market share. Visibility. Professionalism. Those are the things that matter. The next interview we want to discuss is one that I think should have been on the main stage at AREC. It's a report that generated some really interesting conversations and, importantly, raised some important questions for the future of the industry. We're talking about the Real Women in Real Estate Report and its author, Jacqui Barnes.

Part 2: Jacqui Barnes Interview

Peter Schravemade: If you're watching this, we're recording from AREC 2026 on day one of the conference, 24 May. My name is Peter Schravemade. Over at the Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre is my wingwoman, Kasey McDonald, who is representing in her new role while I sit here in a café with one of the most respected voices in the industry. Jacqui Barnes, welcome to Before the Weekend.

Jacqui Barnes: Thank you. It's great to be here.

Peter Schravemade: Firstly, thank you for having me at the Real Women in Real Estate event last night. It was a fantastic evening and exceptionally well attended. For those unfamiliar, Jacqui has just released a substantial piece of research titled: "Real Women in Real Estate: Insights into Leadership, Performance and Progression 2026." Firstly, congratulations. I know how much work goes into producing research like this. I read the report from start to finish, and it's packed with valuable insights. Let's start with the obvious question. Why this report? Why now?

Why the Report Was Created

Jacqui Barnes: Over the years, there have been lots of surveys and requests for information, but I never felt they went broad enough or deep enough. I've completed many of those surveys myself and often never saw the outcome. The information would disappear into a report somewhere and the industry never benefited from the insights. I wanted something tangible. Something that gave us a real-time understanding of where women are in real estate today and what their experiences actually look like. The catalyst was seeing another piece of research last year. It was interesting, but it only had a very small sample size. I remember thinking there was a much bigger story to tell. So that's what this project set out to do.

The Sample Size Surprise

Peter Schravemade: One thing that stood out immediately was the number of respondents who had been in the industry for a significant period of time. That surprised me. Most reports don't capture that depth of experience. Was that intentional?

Jacqui Barnes: No, it wasn't. The survey was distributed broadly across Australia through social media, industry groups, professional networks, Real Women in Real Estate, Rise Initiative, Domain, the Real Estate Institutes and many other channels. When I look back now, I think what happened is that experienced women felt compelled to contribute. They've spent enough time in the industry to recognise that these conversations matter. They're invested in improving outcomes for future generations. Perhaps someone who has only been in the industry for a year or two doesn't yet appreciate the significance of some of these issues.

Were There Any Surprises?

Peter Schravemade: What surprised you most?

Jacqui Barnes: There weren't many huge surprises. Most of the findings broadly aligned with what I expected. However, one result really caught my attention. There was virtually no difference in overall performance between women with children and women without children. But when we looked specifically at the $500,000 to $1 million GCI category, women with children significantly outperformed women without children. That was fascinating.

Peter Schravemade: Do you have a theory?

Jacqui Barnes: Only theories. One possibility is that women with children naturally become embedded in communities through schools, sporting clubs and extracurricular activities. They're constantly building relationships. I know one business owner who makes a point of being at school pick-up every day wearing her company branding. She says she meets more people and builds more relationships during those twenty minutes than she can during an equivalent amount of prospecting. It's impossible to know for certain, but it's an interesting observation.

Women Don't Need Special Treatment

Peter Schravemade: One of the strongest themes in the report is that this isn't about capability. The report effectively says that question has already been answered. The issue is environment.

Jacqui Barnes: Exactly. One of the biggest realisations for me was that much of this isn't actually gender-specific. It applies to leadership generally. Women don't need special environments to succeed. They need effective environments. Every person starts from a different point. Different strengths. Different experiences. Different learning styles. The challenge for leaders is understanding how to create conditions that allow people to perform at their best.

The Problem With One-Size-Fits-All Leadership

Peter Schravemade: You used an example last night about prospecting. The traditional model is often to put someone in front of a phone and tell them to make a thousand calls.

Jacqui Barnes: Exactly. One of the strongest findings in the report was that a significant portion of women's business comes from relationship-based prospecting. Strong client care. Referral networks. Repeat business. Community relationships. Long-term trust. Yet many businesses only measure cold-calling activity. That doesn't mean prospecting isn't important. It absolutely is. But if we know that relationship-building is producing results, why aren't we measuring and encouraging those activities too? Why not measure referral partner meetings, community engagement, client care activities and relationship-building initiatives, instead of only measuring call volume?

Confidence Is Not What People Think

Peter Schravemade: You also made a point about confidence.

Jacqui Barnes: Yes. We often mistake ambition for confidence. Someone might appear confident during an interview. What we're actually seeing is drive, ambition and determination. Real confidence is built through repetition. Confidence comes from doing difficult things repeatedly until they become familiar. That's an important distinction. Because if we understand that confidence is built, then we can help people develop it much earlier in their careers.

The Critical 12 to 24 Month Window

Peter Schravemade: One of the most significant findings in the report was around retention. More than one-third of women considered leaving sales during their first 12 to 24 months in the industry. Why is that period so fragile?

Jacqui Barnes: Because it's difficult. It's difficult for everyone. But the report clearly showed leadership issues. Lack of structure. Lack of clarity. Lack of coaching. Lack of support. We invest heavily in learning how to sell real estate. What if we invested the same effort into learning how to lead people? That's where the real opportunity exists.

Women Are Succeeding Despite The Environment

Peter Schravemade: What struck me was that the women in the survey were exceptionally successful.

Jacqui Barnes: They are. And honestly, I find that a little sad. Because many of them succeeded despite the environment, not because of it. The determination was extraordinary. When we asked women why they stayed, the answers were things like: "I refused to fail." "I couldn't afford to quit." "I knew I was close." "I had come too far." It was grit. Pure grit. And I think that says something important about the people who succeed in this industry.

Peter Schravemade: One of the things I really liked in the report was the focus on relationships. I've just come off the TechFest roadshow, and one of the themes that emerged repeatedly was the obsession with propensity marketing. Everyone wanted to know where the next lead was coming from. Yet when we started discussing databases, CRMs and sphere of influence, many businesses had neglected the very foundations that built their success in the first place. Your report found that approximately 65% of business comes from referrals and repeat clients. That didn't surprise me at all.

Jacqui Barnes: It didn't surprise me either. Of course, businesses need to continue adding people into their database. But we also need to look after the people we already have. Relationships remain one of the strongest drivers of long-term success. The fundamentals still matter.

Safety, Harassment and Workplace Behaviour

Peter Schravemade: One of the most important sections in the report dealt with safety and workplace behaviour. You covered gender bias, sexual harassment, under-reporting and perceptions of safety. What do you hope business owners take away from that section?

Jacqui Barnes: Firstly, we've come a long way. The industry today is significantly better than it was decades ago. However, the report clearly shows that inappropriate behaviour still exists. More than one-third of respondents reported experiencing some form of sexual harassment. Some of the examples provided were genuinely disturbing. To be honest, some of the responses belonged in a police report rather than a survey. What surprised me was how many people still find it difficult to believe this behaviour exists. Particularly men who would never dream of behaving that way themselves. But unfortunately, it does exist. The difference today is that it tends to be more subtle. It's less overt than it may have been decades ago, but it's still there.

Why Small Behaviours Matter

Peter Schravemade: One of my concerns is that behaviour often escalates because it's ignored. People get away with something once. Then again. Then again. And eventually it becomes something much larger.

Jacqui Barnes: Exactly. Small incidents that go unchallenged become learned behaviour. Without accountability, the behaviour escalates. That's why leaders need to set standards and maintain them consistently. It's not always easy. Particularly when high-performing individuals are involved. But ignoring the issue only makes it worse.

When Clients Are The Problem

Peter Schravemade: One thing the report highlights is that inappropriate behaviour doesn't always come from colleagues.

Jacqui Barnes: Correct. Sometimes it's clients. Sometimes it's vendors. Sometimes it's people entirely outside the organisation. That can create a very difficult situation for business owners. How do you manage someone paying substantial commission while also addressing inappropriate behaviour? There aren't always easy answers. But we need to have the conversation. Because people deserve to feel safe while doing their job.

Open Homes and Personal Safety

Peter Schravemade: One finding I found particularly interesting related to open homes. Most respondents reported feeling "mostly safe". At first glance that sounds positive.

Jacqui Barnes: But should "mostly safe" be the benchmark? That's the question. Shouldn't people feel completely safe? The overwhelming majority selected "mostly safe", and while that's better than the alternatives, it still suggests we have work to do.

Ownership, Leadership and Succession

Peter Schravemade: Another area you explored was ownership and leadership. The report found plenty of ambition, but barriers around capital, opportunity and pathway.

Jacqui Barnes: Yes. I think the industry often assumes ownership is something people naturally progress into. But ownership is something people need access to. Many people simply haven't been shown a pathway. The opportunities exist, but they're not always visible. And that's where succession planning becomes incredibly important.

Succession Planning

Peter Schravemade: Leanne Pilkington talks a lot about succession planning. And I think she's right. Many agency owners don't consider internal succession seriously enough.

Jacqui Barnes: I agree. When business owners begin thinking about retirement, they should be looking internally first. Succession isn't something that happens overnight. It's a process. Someone might buy a small shareholding today. Increase it gradually over time. And eventually transition into ownership. In my view, succession planning should begin years before someone intends to step away.

The Cost of Visibility

Peter Schravemade: One of the most eye-opening sections dealt with visibility and personal branding. Real estate professionals are increasingly encouraged to build their personal profile online. But that comes with challenges.

Jacqui Barnes: Absolutely. We're constantly telling people to build their profile, connect with their community, share their story and create content. And they should. But women often receive a very different response online. Men might receive criticism about their work. Women frequently receive criticism about their appearance. Or inappropriate messages. Or sexualised comments. The experience is often very different. I became aware of a young associate who posted perfectly professional content online and was subsequently approached inappropriately by an industry figure. It rattled her significantly. The challenge for leaders is understanding how to support people when these situations occur. Because the workplace no longer ends at the office door. The workplace now extends into social media.

What Does Success Look Like?

Peter Schravemade: If this report achieves exactly what you hope it will achieve, what does success look like?

Jacqui Barnes: Success is simple. I want business owners and leaders to read it. Understand it. Take it back to their teams. And start conversations. Every business wants better results. Every business wants better people outcomes. This report provides information that can help achieve both. The conversations that happen afterwards are where the real value lies.

Returning to the Studio

Peter Schravemade: As you heard, we recorded that interview in a busy café, but thankfully the microphones did their job. Congratulations again to Jacqui Barnes on an outstanding report. For me, one of the most interesting outcomes is that the report raises almost as many questions as it answers. It provides a snapshot of where we are today, but it also opens the door to discussions about where we're going next.

Kasey McDonald: Absolutely. There are some fantastic insights in there. And I'd encourage everyone to take the time to read it. There are lessons for agency owners, leaders, team members and anyone interested in improving the industry.

Industry Behaviour and Professional Standards

Peter Schravemade: One final topic before we wrap up. Leanne Pilkington spoke in a previous episode about one of her biggest frustrations being poor behaviour within the industry. Unfortunately, we've seen more examples this week. There was a former real estate agent on the Gold Coast charged with serious offences, including drug possession and supply. We won't give those stories additional airtime. But it does reinforce an important point. The actions of a few people can damage the reputation of an entire profession.

Kasey McDonald: Exactly. And as more cases come to light, regulators, industry bodies and the public will continue paying close attention. Our role as professionals is simple. Act ethically. Act professionally. And remember that our responsibility is to help people buy, sell and lease property with confidence.

Looking Ahead

Peter Schravemade: What have you got coming up this week, Kasey?

Kasey McDonald: A busy week. I'm heading to Sydney to spend time with clients and introduce them to some of the solutions we're developing within the property management space. I'm looking forward to getting out there and helping businesses improve outcomes for both landlords and property managers.

Closing Remarks

Peter Schravemade: Well, that brings us to the end of Episode 3. Thank you for joining us. If you've enjoyed today's conversations, make sure you subscribe through your preferred podcast platform. You can also visit beforetheweekend.com to access previous episodes and stay up to date with future releases. If you'd like to get in touch, we'd love to hear from you. Until next time, from Kasey and myself, thank you for listening. To all the agents, property managers and industry professionals heading into a busy weekend of open homes, auctions and inspections: Good luck. Have a great weekend. We'll see you next week.

Kasey McDonald: Thanks everyone. Have a fantastic weekend.